The Pendulum Paradox: Part 2 🕰️
How amygdala hijack and recency bias risk constant pendulum swings for leaders. And what to do differently to make more deliberate choices.
"Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain."
- Paul Atreides in Dune, by Frank Herbert (Spoken by Paul Atreides)
Not many of us can relate to the emotion felt by Paul Atreides in Dune, when his hand is burning in a box. Though we can all relate to the fear of pain. Especially to the fear of repeating it. As leaders, when we stand at the threshold of a new decision, the wreckage of the last one is often a fresh and painful memory. The moment we most need our cold, clear reason is precisely when it is at its most fragile.
As we explored in Part 1 of this three part series on The Pendulum Paradox, we tend to overreact to a failed outcome by swinging in the opposite direction. Because when a strategy fails, a team implodes, or a risk manifests, the brain interprets it not as a simple data point but as a threat. The amygdala, that small, almond-shaped cluster in the limbic system, screams in alarm. In that raw, emotional instant, it seizes control, a phenomenon psychologists have long called the amygdala hijack. It is a neural coup, where the rational mind, the prefrontal cortex, is temporarily silenced.
The Biological Recoil
The brilliant strategist is replaced by the data-driven technician, the bold, visionary project by its safe, small, and incremental counterpart. This is not leadership; it is a primal, biological recoil. The pain of failure, fresh and searing, is granted an authority it does not deserve. As neuroscientists have shown, the brain under duress defaults to cognitive shortcuts.
The most immediate, most emotionally charged data point, the failure itself, is amplified by recency bias, coloring the entire landscape of your thinking. You are not making a reasoned choice for the future, but rather trying to erase the ghost of a past mistake.
3 Tips to Break the Pendulum Paradox Cycle
To break this cycle requires more than willpower; it requires a deliberate, intellectual act of rebellion against your own biology. The answer lies in the cultivation of a pause. When faced with the urge to overcorrect, you must find a way to let the emotional dust settle. Do not decide in the immediate aftermath.
1. Acknowledge and Label.
As research on emotional regulation suggests, the simple act of labeling the feeling: "This is my fear of repeating a mistake," "This is my frustration at being wrong" etc. can diminish its power. It is an act of observation, not submission. When you feel yourself preparing for a bold reaction, take a moment to label.
2. Engage in Counterfactual Thinking.
From that place of quiet, you can then perform this powerful mental exercise. Ask: "What if that last decision had worked, and why?" This forces the prefrontal cortex back into the game, guiding your mind from the well-trodden path of emotional reaction to a more complex, reasoned, and ultimately wiser path forward. As we explored in Part 1, lessons from World War II show us that we tend to confuse causation with correlation. Especially when under amygdala hijack.
3. Put the Decision on a 24-Hour Hold.
After a major failure, our brains are in a state of chaos. By consciously delaying a major decision for a full day, you give your amygdala time to calm down and your prefrontal cortex time to re-engage. This simple act of patience can prevent a reactionary overcorrection and allow you to make a choice rooted in logic, not in pain. Sleep on it. Your decision the next day will be more intentional (even if it’s the same one).
Conclusion
The pendulum paradox is not a flaw in your character; it is a feature of your humanity. As leaders, our most profound work is to transcend our programming. By understanding the science of the swing, we gain the power to make intentional, measured choices that move us not away from the past, but towards a more deliberate future.
How do you mitigate the risk of your pendulum swing? Let me know in the comments.
The Wake Up Top 5
What we’ve been loving this week
Watch: The rise of the indie web. Neocities! Yes.
Read: If you use these 5 phrases, you are a passive aggressive emailer. Thanks in advance.
Buy: Pokemon Cards. Trading better than the S&P 500 and Meta. 8 year olds tend to be ahead of the curve.
Cook: Magical marinades do the heavy lifting. Sesame ginger is so good.
Plan: Foliage Map predicts when fall leaves are coming to your US state.
If you’ve made it this far, know that I’m so grateful you spent your time reading The Wake Up when you could be scrolling on TikTok, YT, or Instagram or doing 100 other things as a busy, wonderful person. Thank you 💛 and let me know what you’d like to read next.